What does industrial production index mean. What is the index of industrial production, why is it needed and what does it affect? Fixed assets of the enterprise

Federal Agency for Education

Russian State University of Oil and Gas named after I.M. Gubkin

Department of Financial Management

Coursework on the topic:

Methodology for calculating the main indices

industrial production.

Executed Checked

Student gr. EU-08-2 senior teacher Kvitko N.S. Tarasenko P.F.

In statistics, generalizing indicators in the form of averages, relative values ​​and various coefficients are widely used to characterize the processes and phenomena of various spheres of social activity. Indexes are among the most important generalizing indicators. Indices form the most important economic indicators of the national economy and its individual industries.

Indices are an indispensable research tool in cases where it is necessary to compare two sets in time or space, the elements of which cannot be directly summarized. Therefore, one of the common methods used in statistical studies and allowing characterizing the change in complex phenomena is the index method.

In general, the index method is aimed at solving the following problems:

1) a description of the general change in the level of a complex socio-economic phenomenon;

2) analysis of the influence of each of the factors on the change in the indexed value by eliminating the impact of other factors;

3) analysis of the impact of structural shifts on the change in the indexed value

Each of these tasks is solved using different indexes.

This course work consists of two main parts: theoretical and practical.

The theoretical part gives a general concept of indices and their classification, as well as forms and types of indices and their scope.

In the practical part, a detailed description of JSC "Tomskneft" VNK for 2007-2009 is given, in addition, the calculation and analysis of the main indices of industrial production based on data for JSC "Tomskneft" VNK is described in detail.

1.1. The concept and classification of indices

The word "index" has several meanings: indicator, index, inventory, register. It is used as a concept in mathematics, economics, meteorology and other sciences.

In international practice, indexes are usually denoted by symbols i and I(the initial letter of the Latin word index). The letter " i» are denoted by individual (private) indices, the letter « I» - common indices. The sign at the bottom right means the period: 0 - basic, 1 - reporting. In addition, certain symbols are used to denote indexed indicators:

q- Quantity (volume) of any goods in physical terms;

p- unit price of goods;

z- unit cost of production;

t- time spent on the production of a unit of output;

w- production output in value terms per worker or per unit of time;

v- output in physical terms per worker or per unit of time;

T- total time spent (tq) or number of workers;

pq- the cost of production or turnover;

zq- production costs.

All economic indices can be classified according to the following criteria:

degree of coverage of the phenomenon;

comparison base;

type of scales (co-meter);

form of construction;

the nature of the object of study;

· object of study;

The composition of the phenomenon

calculation period.

By degree of coverage Phenomena indexes are individual and consolidated. Individual indices serve to characterize the change in individual elements of a complex phenomenon. Their example can be changes in the volume of production of certain types of products, as well as the price of shares of an enterprise. To measure the dynamics of a complex phenomenon, the components of which are directly incommensurable (changes in the physical volume of products, including heterogeneous goods, the price index of shares of enterprises in the region, etc.), composite or general indices are calculated.

If the indices do not cover all the elements of a complex phenomenon, but only a part of them, then such indices are called group or sub-indices, for example, indices of the physical volume of production for individual industries, price indices for groups of food and non-food products. Group indices reflect patterns in the development of individual parts of the studied phenomena. In such indices, their connection with the grouping method is manifested.

Based on comparison All indices can be divided into two groups: dynamic and territorial. The first group of indices reflects the change in the phenomenon over time.

When calculating dynamic indices, the value of the indicator in the reporting period is compared with the value of the same indicator for the previous period, which is called the base period. However, both forecast and planned indicators can be used as the latter.

Dynamic indexes are basic and chain.

The second group of indices (territorial) is used for interregional comparisons. These indices are of great importance in international statistics when comparing indicators of the socio-economic development of various countries.

By type of weight indexes are subdivided into indexes with constant and variable weights.

depending from the form of construction , aggregate and average indices differ. The latter are divided into arithmetic and harmonic. The aggregate form of general indices is the main form of economic indices. Average indices are derivatives, they are obtained as a result of the transformation of aggregate indices.

depending on the nature of the scope of the study there are indices of quantitative (volumetric) indicators and indices of qualitative indicators. The indexes of volume indicators include indices of trade turnover, physical volume of production, national income of consumption, etc. Indexes of qualitative indicators include indices of prices, labor productivity, cost, etc.

By object of study there are indices: labor productivity indices, cost indices, product cost indices, indices of the physical volume of production, etc.

According to the composition of the phenomenon two groups of indices can be distinguished: indices of constant (fixed) composition and indices of variable composition. The division of indices into these two groups is used to analyze the dynamics of average indicators.

By calculation period indices are divided into annual, quarterly, monthly, weekly.

The simplest indicator used in index analysis is an individual index that characterizes the change in time of economic values ​​related to one object. Depending on the economic purpose, individual indices are: physical volume of production, cost, prices, labor intensity, etc. An individual index is denoted by the letter i and is followed by a subscript of the indicator being indexed.

General view of an individual index:

,

Where: x – indexed value

1 - reporting period

0 - base period

In economic calculations, the most commonly used general indexes , which characterize the change as a whole. The construction of these indices is the content of the index methodology.

General indices are built for quantitative (volumetric) and qualitative indicators. Depending on the purpose of the study and the availability of initial data, various forms of constructing general indices are used: aggregate and weighted average.

The general index is indicated by the letter I and is also accompanied by a subscript of the indexed indicator.

The peculiarity of general indices is that they express the relative change in complex phenomena, the individual parts and elements of which are directly incommensurable, and therefore the indices are synthetic indicators.

In some cases, it is required to compare data not for two, but for three or more periods. In such cases, it is necessary to choose a base of comparison. Depending on the basis of comparison, there are basic and chain indices .

Under basic indices understand such indices that have the same period of time taken as the basis for calculations.

If, when calculating the index, the base for calculations will change and the period preceding the calculation of the index is taken as such a base, then the index will be called chain . Basic indices provide a more visual description of the general trend in the development of the phenomenon under study, while chain indices reflect the sequence of changes in levels over time.

The growth of the indicator indicates the rise of the national economy, which entails an influx of investments and an increase in the value of shares of leading manufacturing companies.

Calculation features

The IPP is calculated as the ratio of the volume of goods produced in the extractive and industrial sectors for the reporting period in monetary terms to the same indicator for the previous period. The index calculation formula is as follows:

IPP \u003d Qtek / Qbase x 100%

where Qcurrent and Qbase mean, respectively, production in the current and base periods. In Russia, the IPP is calculated on the basis of data from companies with the strongest production indicators. The result obtained is the basis for determining the current situation of the economy in the country.

Role

The IPP takes into account the performance of the main sectors of the economy. It is an average index of manufacturing industries. It is based on physical indicators of output, with the exception of public services. The use of the index plays an important role:

  • helps to determine the dynamics of socio-economic phenomena in the country;
  • makes it possible to analyze the influence of various factors on the overall change in the index;
  • makes it possible to analyze the impact of structural changes on the indicator.

The calculation of the IPP gives an understanding at what stage of the economic development cycle the state is.

Calculation methods

To determine the IPP, the following methods are used:

  • direct measurement;
  • an estimate based on information on the cost of electricity and working hours.

To determine the indicator, it is necessary to obtain information on the volume of production in certain sectors of the economy.

Rosstat receives information that serves as the basis for calculations through the reporting of enterprises. But the information it contains is relatively reliable. Some companies, for one reason or another, hide the real data on production volumes, trying to hide their income. This was the reason for the emergence of the so-called shadow economy and shadow production. This state of affairs created a problem, since the index calculated on the basis of data from the reporting does not give an accurate picture, there is no way to determine the impact of the shadow economy on it.

To solve the problem, the state has developed special methods that correct the calculation of the index for those sectors of the economy in which it is impossible to calculate using the traditional method or it is difficult to obtain reliable data.

Conclusion

IPI is one of the main indicators that makes it possible to understand whether there was an increase in production or a decline in the region or the state as a whole. An increase in this indicator indicates the growth of the economy, has a positive effect on the investment climate and is the reason for the strengthening of the national currency. The analysis of this indicator is very important. Excessive growth of the index can cause the "overheating" of the economy and will have the opposite effect - the growth of inflationary processes. As for the decrease in the indicator, this is a direct signal to the state authorities that a set of measures should be urgently developed to overcome the crisis.

The industrial production index includes production in the main industries, so it can be conditionally called one of the components of the gross national product. Accordingly, the dynamics of the IPP speaks of both changes in the main sectors of the economy and the gross domestic product as a whole.

In Russia, there is a positive trend in IPP. This suggests that the country's economy has come out of recession and resumed its growth. The main factors that carry risks and may negatively affect this indicator are sanctions by Western countries against a number of domestic producers. After the introduction of some restrictive measures by the United States, the shares of some companies in the Russian Federation fell sharply. Despite the fact that the stock market recovered, it had a negative impact on the dynamics of the economy and production in particular.

In the process of adapting international recommendations and standards in the field of enterprise statistics and taking into account national features of accounting and statistics, a domestic approach to building integrated estimates of the dynamics of production is gradually being formed.

Method of calculation integral production index, developed by the state statistics authorities of Ukraine, involves its calculation as the weighted average of the indexes of industrial and construction products. The basis of the weight structure when calculating the index at the class level (group, section, subsection, section KVED: C, D F, D) provide data on the distribution of value added created in industry and construction

According to international standards, the indicator "industrial production index" characterizes the change in the volume of gross value added in industry at factor cost (ie minus any taxes on production) in the periods selected for comparison. The basic formula for this index is the standard Laspeyres volume index

where and- reporting period; b - base period;G prices for finished products; a - prices for materials; 6 - quantity of materials in natural units; N number of i-th goods (product groups); M the quantity of y's materials, raw materials.

Due to the complexity of the impossibility of implementing this formula in practice in full, it becomes necessary to search for a simplified approach to building an index.

The domestic approach to determining the integral index of production, developed by the staff of the Scientific and Technical Complex of Statistical Research and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, is based on the method of the so-called constant set of representative goods.

Representative products- this is a set of goods specialized for a certain type of activity (at the level of a group, class), which are homogeneous in their consumer properties and purpose in a certain group or class of KVED. This set is used by international statistical offices and most countries. According to the proposed approach, the index acts as a weighted average, the weight structure of which is based on data on the distribution of value added between industrial activities from the corresponding individual indices of each product.

The basic information for building the index is data on the production of products in physical terms without trying to determine the consumed raw materials and materials. It is assumed that the structure of value added by type of economic activity is constant for a certain period of time. It is fixed in the weighting system for calculating the index. As a consequence, the original Laspeyres formula for calculating the index of industrial production is transformed and takes the following form

where / - reporting period; b- base period; c- quantity of products in natural units; G- prices for finished products; and number of goods (product groups); And amount them goods (commodity groups).

The calculation of the index of industrial production is based on a representative, as a rule, constant list of goods. Most of the representative products are in kind. For individual representative goods, for which it is impossible to correctly account for products in physical terms, cost estimates are used with their further deflation. For products with a long production cycle, data on man-hours worked are used.

Indices calculated at the level of a class or group of KVED, respectively, are aggregated into indexes at the level of a section, subsection, section, and the industry as a whole.

The algorithm for calculating the index of industrial production consists of two stages.

And the stage provides for the calculation of indices for goods presented in physical, value terms, as well as for products of a long production cycle at the level of a class (group) of OKVED:

a) calculation of indices for goods presented in physical terms and valued at the average annual prices of the base year

where t reporting period; b- base period; k- q 9 Eurozone - the number of products for the reporting month and the average for the month of the base year; G unit price on average for the month of the base year (calculated); P the number in this class (group) of OKVED representative goods selected for calculation.

Example 9.5. . Table 9.8.

Table 9.8. in

The index of industrial production for two goods representing the type of activity "Iron ore mining" for January of the reporting year to the average monthly value of the base year is equal to

b) calculation of indices for goods, works (services) presented in value terms, using deflation

where and reporting period; b- base period; to ordinal number of the class (group); Y, ^ Y; b - the volume of production of the "-th representative product at the level of the class (group) of KVED, respectively, in the reporting month (AND) and the average for the month of the base year (b); i-m - producer price index u"th representative product in the period / up to the average monthly value of the base year; t the number of goods involved in the calculation;

c) calculation of indices for products with a long production cycle based on data on man-hours worked in the reporting month compared to the average monthly value of the number of man-hours worked in the base year and adjusted for the labor productivity index:

where / - reporting period; b - base period; to ordinal number of the class (group); T. T- the number of man-hours worked in the reporting month and on average for the month of the base year; u^b- labor productivity index of the previous reporting year to the base one; K^- coefficient of changes in the calendar number of days in the reporting month to the average monthly value of the base year.

Labor productivity is defined as the ratio of the volume of products sold per year to the average number of employees in the corresponding type of activity, adjusted for price changes. The labor productivity index characterizes the change in productivity in the previous year compared to the base one.

Example 9.6. . Methodology for calculating the product index for the type of activity "Construction and repair of ships" illustrated in Table. 9.9

Table 9.9. in

For products of the type of activity "Construction and repair of ships", the index will be

II stage provides calculation of indices for a group, section (section) of KVED and industry as a whole as from weighted average indices calculated for classes (groups, divisions, sections).

How weight is used added value for each class (group, section, section)

where L/ - the number of classes (groups, sections, sections); eat - index who class (group, section); Y^ - the amount of value added for each class (group, section, sections) in the base year; (Iy / b \u003d IchkLІb or Tsal or

Similarly, the calculation of indices is carried out for each of the months of the year, for example, for the month preceding the reporting one.

Construction Products Index should ideally measure changes in monthly volumes of value added created in section D of KVED. The contribution of construction enterprises to the creation of gross domestic product is directly determined by the volume of work performed by workers employed in this industry and the number of man-hours worked by them. In turn, construction is a long-term production, which makes it difficult to directly obtain high-quality monthly discrete data.

Taking into account the possibility of obtaining data on the results of the work of construction enterprises, the construction index methodology is based on data on the volumes of products produced in construction. The basic formula for calculating the construction index, as for the index of industrial production, is the Laspeyres volume index (9.12).

The index of construction products in general for the type of activity "Construction" is calculated as the sum of the weighted average of the indexes of construction of buildings and structures, calculated as the ratio of the volume of manufactured products in the reporting month, to the average monthly value of the volume of manufactured products in the base year (adjusted for the corresponding price indices for the construction of buildings and engineering structures). For the weight, the share of each type of construction products in its total volume in the base year was chosen.

where!™™IG - index of construction products; V- the amount of work performed on the construction of buildings in the current year; Uy - the average monthly volume of work performed on the construction of buildings in the base year;

Price index for construction and installation works in the construction of buildings, calculated to the average monthly value in the base year; AUS - share of the value added of construction of buildings in the value added of construction of buildings and structures in the base year, the share of the volume of the corresponding type of construction products in the base year; Vi--- the amount of work performed on the construction of engineering structures in the current year; U8~ the average monthly volume of work performed on the construction of engineering structures in the base year; /"^ - price index for construction and installation works in the construction of engineering structures, calculated to the average monthly value in the base year; LU^- share of value added of construction of buildings in the value added of construction of buildings and structures in the base year.

Example 9.7. . The methodology for calculating the index of construction products is illustrated in Table. 9.10

Table 9.10. in

For construction products, the index will be

Having calculated the indices of industrial and construction products, integral production index calculated according to the formula

where - - reporting period; b- base period; AND"?- index of industrial production; I, / b- index of construction products; yi, yi- volume of added value created in industry and construction

in the base year ^ - total value added.

Derived indices for comparison of integral index for certain types of economic activity for any period chosen as a base, are calculated as follows.

First, the indices are calculated for each month of the current year to the corresponding month of the previous year according to the formula

The index for the period is defined as the ratio of the sums of the monthly indices that make up the selected periods. For example, index of the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2004

where Ilqu2005- index of the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2004; /jo-s/? ~~ indices for January, February and March 2005 in the respective months of the base year; І2sh)b ~ indices for January, February and March 2004 in the respective months of the base year.

This order is identical to the direct comparison of average monthly volumes, since the base year data is reduced arithmetically.

Significant differences in the main trends in the dynamics of production and sales of products predetermine the need for parallel tracking of these dynamics using the production index, the index of new orders and the turnover index.

Index- this is a generalizing relative indicator that characterizes the change in the level of a social phenomenon in time, compared with a development program, plan, forecast, or its relationship in space.

The most common comparative characteristic in time. In this case, the indices act as .
Index Method is also the most important analytical tool for identifying relationships between phenomena. In this case, not individual indices are used, but their systems.
In statistical practice, indices are used in the analysis of the development of all sectors of the economy, at all stages of economic work. In a market economy, the role of incomes of the population, the stock market and territorial indices has especially increased.

Statistics classifies indices according to the following criteria:

1. Depending on the object of study:

  • indices of volume (quantitative) indicators (indices of physical volume: turnover, production, consumption)
  • indices of qualitative indicators (price indices, )

The indexes of volume indicators include indices of physical volume: commodity turnover, products, consumption of material goods and services; as well as other indicators of a quantitative nature: the number of employees, acreage, etc. Indexes of qualitative indicators include indices of: prices, production costs, wages, labor productivity, productivity, etc.;

2. According to the degree of coverage of the population elements:

  • individual indices(give a comparative description of the individual elements of the phenomenon)
  • general indexes(characterize the change in the totality of elements or the whole phenomenon as a whole)

3. Depending on the calculation methodology, general indices are divided into:

  • aggregate (aggregate indices are the main form of indices and are built as aggregates by weighting the indexed indicator using the constant value of another indicator interconnected with it).
  • averages (are derived from aggregate)

4. Depending on the base of comparison, there are:

  • basic (if the comparison base remains constant when calculating indices for several periods of time)
  • chained (if the base of comparison is constantly changing)

Index Method

Elimination, that is, the calculation of the influence of individual factors on the general indicator, can also be carried out index method. This method is used for dismemberment. Indices are a kind of relative values. Indices are used in order to characterize economic phenomena, consisting of elements that should not be summarized.

Technically, any index is an indicator defined as the ratio of any two values. The latter are, in essence, certain states of a known feature. With the help of indices, actual indicators are compared with the base ones, that is, as a rule, with the planned ones and with the indicators of previous periods.

There are two main types of indexes:
  • simple (private, individual);
  • analytical (general, aggregate).

In the first case, the feature under study is taken without taking into account the connection of this feature with other features of the economic phenomena under study. Such indices can be represented by the following formula:

And - correspondingly compared states of any feature

In the second case, the studied feature is not used in isolation, but in its relationship with other features.

Therefore, any analytical index consists of two elements:

With the help of weight signs, changes in economic phenomena are studied, the constituent elements of which are incommensurable. It should be borne in mind that simple and analytical indices complement each other.

Analytical indices can be represented as follows:

where and are weight features

The use of indices in economic analysis has the following goals:

  • with their help, an assessment of the relative change in any economic phenomenon or indicator is given;
  • the use of indices makes it possible to determine the influence of individual factors on the change in the generalizing (resulting) indicator (feature).
  • an assessment is given of the impact of a change in the structure of an economic phenomenon on the magnitude of the dynamics of this phenomenon.

Let's consider the essence of the index method using a specific example. If the analyzed organization produces heterogeneous products, then the total index of production volume is calculated.

Information about the volume and cost of output.

Product types

Amount)

Price for 1 piece (rubles)

Production cost (rubles)

In this example, we will calculate analytical indices, where as indexed feature is taken output, and as a weight feature - the price per unit of production. Based on the data given in the table, we calculate the total index of production volume:

Our results were influenced by two factors:

  • change in the quantity of products;
  • change in product prices.

It should be defined separately:

  • index of change in the quantity (volume) of products, subject to its assessment at the same prices;
  • index of change in prices for products, provided that they are of the same volume.

First, we find the index of change in the quantity of production:

Then we determine the index of price changes for products:

In the example under consideration, the quantity change index shows an increase in the volume of production by or by 8 rubles, that is, (123 - 115). The price change index indicates an increase in product prices by , which is 10 rubles, that is, (133 - 123).

If we add up the influence of the indices, we get the total index of production volume - 18 rubles.

With the help of indices, you can compare data for a number of years, for example, by calculating growth rate products at comparable prices.

In terms of analyzing the dynamics of indicators, one should distinguish between the concepts of chain and basic indices. basic called the index calculated in relation to the base period. chain is called an index calculated in relation to the previous period.

Individual indices

Methods for constructing indices depend on the content of the phenomenon under study, the methodology for calculating the initial statistical indicators, and the objectives of the study. There are 3 elements in each index:

There are 3 elements in each index:

  • indexed indicator is an indicator, the ratio of levels of which characterizes the index
  • comparable level- this is the level that is compared with another.
  • baseline is the level to which the comparison is made.

To calculate the index, it is necessary to find the ratio of the compared level to the base one and express it as a coefficient if the comparison base is equal to one, or as a percentage if the comparison base is taken as 100%. Usually, indices are calculated in the form of coefficients with an accuracy of up to the third decimal place, i.e. up to 0.001, in the form of percentages - up to tenths of a percent, i.e. up to 0.1%.

For the convenience of building indexes, special symbols are used:

  • i — symbol of the indexed indicator — an index that characterizes the change in the level of the element of the phenomenon.
  • I - with a subscript indexed indicator - for a group of elements or the entire population as a whole.
  • q - the number of goods sold or manufactured products in physical terms
  • p - unit price
  • z - unit cost of production
  • w - labor productivity
  • T - hours worked or number of employees
  • l is the average wage of one worker
  • 0 - base period
  • 1 - reporting period
Initial data Estimated data
Products Basic
period		 Reporting period Turnover million rubles Individual indices
Sales
tons		 Price for 1 piece
t.rub		 Sales
tons		 Price for 1 piece
t.rub		 Base period Reporting period Reporting period at base period prices Phys. volume of t-turnover Price Goods turnover
BUT 1 2 3 4 5=1*2 6=3*4 7=3*2 8=3:1 9=4:2 10=6:5
q0 p0 q 1 p1 q 0 * p 0 q 1 * p 1 q 1 * p 0
TVs 400 3 360 3,3 1200 1188 1080 0,9 1,1 0,99
Video tape backgrounds 200 2 250 1,8 400 450 500 1,250 0,9 1,125
Total X X X X 1600 1638 1580 0,9875 1,037 1,024

Individual indices characterize the change of a separate element of the phenomenon.

Individual index of the physical volume of trade

So, to study the change in the number of goods sold (physical volume of sales), it is necessary to construct an individual index of the physical volume of trade turnover as the ratio of the quantity of goods of the same type sold in the reporting period to the quantity of the same goods sold in the base period ( i q = q 1 / q 0). Since the base level of the indexed indicator is equal to 1 or 100%, the difference between the obtained index and 1 or 100% characterizes the relative magnitude of the change in the quantity of goods sold. This index can also be used to determine the absolute change in the quantity of goods sold in physical terms as the difference between the numerator and denominator of the index.

Let's calculate the individual indices of the physical volume of trade.

On TVs: or 90% and we count thousand units, that is, in the reporting period, compared to the base year, TV sets were sold by 40 thousand units, or 10% less than in the base year.

For VCRs: , and we count thousand units, that is, the number of VCRs sold increased by 50 thousand units or 25%.

Individual price index

Individual price index is defined as the ratio of the price of an individual product in the reporting period to its price in the base period, that is, according to the formula: . The difference between the numerator and denominator will show the absolute change in the price per unit of goods in rubles.

Calculate individual price indices (9):

On TV: either 110% and thousand rubles, i.e. the price of the TV increased by 0.3 thousand rubles, or by 10% (110-100).

For VCRs: either 90% and thousand rubles, i.e. the price of a VCR decreased by 0.2 thousand rubles or 10%.

Individual turnover index

The individual turnover index characterizes the change in turnover for one product and is built as the ratio of the turnover of the reporting period to the turnover of the base period, that is, according to the formula:

The difference between its numerator and denominator will show the absolute change in turnover in rubles due to two factors: changes in the quantity of goods sold and changes in the price of this goods, that is

Let's calculate the individual turnover indices (10):

On TVs: either 99% and million rubles, that is, the turnover on TVs has decreased by 12 million rubles, or 1% (99-100%).

For video recorders: or 112.5% ​​and million rubles, that is, the turnover of video recorders increased by 50 million rubles. or by 12.5% ​​(12.5-100%).

Reviewed by us individual indices are interconnected just like the indexed indicators themselves: the trade turnover index is equal to the product of the index of the physical volume of trade turnover and the price index, that is

Let's check the relationship of the calculated individual indices:

  • On TV: 0.99 = 0.9 * 1.1
  • VCRs: 1.125 = 1.25*0.9

In addition, the obtained data allow us to calculate absolute indicators of changes in trade turnover for individual goods due to individual factors.

So, on televisions, the total change in turnover amounted to: million rubles, that is, the turnover on televisions in the reporting period decreased by 12 million rubles compared to the base period. This value can be decomposed into two:

1. due to a change in the number of goods sold: million rubles, that is, due to a decrease in the number of televisions sold by 40 thousand pieces, the turnover became less by 120 million rubles.

2. due to price changes: million rubles, that is, due to an increase in the price of one TV set by 0.3 thousand rubles, the turnover increased by 108 million rubles.

Let's check the relationship of the calculated indicators: mln.

For VCRs, we have a change in turnover by 50 million rubles.

1. by changing the number of goods sold:

2. due to price changes:

Turnover of video recorders increased by 50 million rubles. Due to the increase in the number of VCRs sold by 50 thousand units, the turnover increased by 100 million rubles, and due to the reduction in prices for VCRs by 0.2 thousand rubles per unit, it decreased by 50 million rubles.

General indexes

All the indices considered by us characterize the relative change in the levels of individual elements of the phenomenon and are called individual indices.

However, most of the social phenomena and processes studied by statistics consist of many elements that can be both homogeneous and heterogeneous. Homogeneous phenomena can be directly summed up and indices can be calculated that characterize the change not in one element, but in a group of elements or in the entire population as a whole. Such indexes are called common indexes. So, you can sum up the number of sold homogeneous goods by group of firms and calculate general index of physical volume of trade according to the formula:

Where the sign means the summation of data on the quantity of one product for several firms. It is possible to sum up the turnover for several goods and calculate the total turnover index using the formula , where the sign means the summation of the turnover for a group of goods.

If the individual elements of the phenomenon are not homogeneous, then their direct summation is impossible or meaningless, and then it is necessary to bring them to a comparable form. All goods have a cost, and the cost of goods can be summed up. The transition from natural indicators to cost ones makes it possible to overcome the non-summarity of the natural-real elements of the population. But the change in the value of commodities is due to the joint change in two factors - the quantity of goods and their prices, and we need to determine the change in each of these factors separately. To study the change in one factor, it is necessary to abstract from the change in the second, interconnected factor and build a general index in aggregate form.

Yes, I must show change number of sold heterogeneous goods, therefore, in its numerator, the reporting quantity of goods (q 1) is taken, and in the denominator - the base quantity (q 0), i.e. the indexed indicator changes, and the weighting is carried out in the same prices of the base period (p 0):

The numerator of this index is the conditional value of the turnover of the reporting period in the prices of the base period, and the denominator is the real value of the turnover of the base period. The difference between the numerator and denominator of the index will show the absolute change in trade due to changes in the physical volume of trade:

Calculate aggregate index of physical volume of trade according to our example:

Or 98.75% and million rubles, that is, the number of goods sold by the store on average decreased by 1.25% (98.75 - 100%), which led to a decrease in turnover by 20 million rubles.

Aggregate indices of qualitative indicators are built with weights - volumetric indicators of the reporting period. So, the aggregate price index according to the formula of the German economist E.:

In the numerator of the index - the turnover of the reporting period, in the denominator - the turnover of the reporting period in the prices of the base period, and the difference between them characterizes: from the position of the seller - the absolute change in turnover due to price changes, from the position of the buyer - savings (overspending) of the population from changes in prices for products: .

Calculate the aggregate price index according to our example:

Or 103.7% and million rubles, that is, on average, prices for goods increased by 3.7%, which led to an increase in trade by 58 million rubles.

As weights in indices of qualitative indicators, not only absolute volume indicators, but also indicators of their structure, that is, shares, can be used.

In statistical practice, a price index is also used, built with basic weights according to the formula E.:

The aggregate turnover index is calculated by the formula:

Or 102.4%. The difference between the numerator and denominator of this index characterizes the absolute change in turnover due to two factors: changes in the number of goods sold and their prices: million rubles, that is, the turnover in the reporting period increased by 38 million rubles compared to the base period. or 2.4%.

Aggregate indices of volume and quality indicators, built with different weights, are interconnected in the same way as individual indices: the product of the aggregate index of the physical volume of goods turnover by the aggregate price index gives the aggregate index of trade:

We have obtained a system of interconnected aggregate indices, each of which allows us to determine the change in the indexed indicator in relative terms (%). In addition, these indices can be used to determine the change in the general indicator - turnover due to individual factors in absolute terms as the difference between the numerator and denominator of the corresponding index. The absolute indicators of changes in trade turnover due to individual factors are interrelated as follows.

Let's check the relationship of indicators calculated according to our example:

1. Aggregate indices: 1.024 = 0.975*1.037

2. absolute changes: +38 million rubles = - 20 + 58 million rubles.

Systems of aggregate indices of others are built in a similar way.

Basic formulas for calculating summary or general indices

Index name

Formula

What does the index show?

What does the index value reduced by 100% show

What is the difference between the numerator and denominator

Index of the physical volume of production (by price)

How many times has the cost of products changed as a result of a change in the volume of its production, or how many percent was the increase (decrease) in the cost of products due to a change in its physical volume

What is the percentage change in the cost of production as a result of a change in the volume of its production

By how many rubles has the cost of production changed as a result of an increase (decrease) in the volume of its production

Price index

How many times has the cost of products changed as a result of price changes, or how many percent was the increase (decrease) in the cost of products due to price changes

By what percentage did the cost of production change as a result of price changes?

By how many rubles has the cost of production changed as a result of an increase (decrease) in prices

Index of production value (turnover)

How many times has the cost of production changed, or how many percent was the increase (decrease) in the cost of production in the current period compared to the base

By what percentage has the cost of production changed in the current period compared to the base

By how many rubles has the cost of production changed in the current period compared to the base

Index of the physical volume of production (at cost)

How many times have the costs of production changed as a result of a change in the volume of its production, or how many percent was the increase (decrease) in the costs of production due to a change in the volume of its production

How many percent have the costs of production changed as a result of a change in the volume of its production

By how many rubles have the costs of production changed as a result of a change in the volume of its production

Production cost index

How many times have the costs of production changed as a result of changes in the cost of production, or how many percent was the increase (decrease) in production costs due to changes in the cost of production

By what percentage have the costs of production changed as a result of a change in the cost of production

By how many rubles have the costs of production changed as a result of changes in the cost of production

Production cost index

How many times have the costs of production changed, or what percentage was the increase (decrease) in the costs of production in the current period compared to the base

By what percentage have the costs of production changed in the current period compared to the base

By how many rubles have the costs of production changed in the current period compared to the base

Index of the physical volume of production (by labor intensity)

How many times have the time spent on the production of products changed as a result of a change in the volume of its production, or how many percent was the increase (decrease) in the time spent on the production of products due to a change in its physical volume

By what percent did the time spent on production change as a result of a change in the volume of its production

How many man-hours have changed the time spent on production as a result of an increase (decrease) in the volume of its production

Labor intensity index

How many times have the time spent on production changed as a result of a change in its labor intensity, or what percentage was the increase (decrease) in the time spent on production due to a change in its labor intensity

By what percent did the time spent on production change as a result of a change in its labor intensity

How many man-hours have the time spent on production changed as a result of an increase (decrease) in its labor intensity

Index of time spent on production

How many times have the time spent on production changed, or how many percent was the increase (decrease) in the cost of production in the current period compared to the base

How many percent have the time spent on production changed in the current period compared to the base

How many man-hours have changed the time spent on production in the current period compared to the base

One of the fundamental indices included in the macroeconomic indicator of any country is ( IPP, Industrial Production Index). In order to understand its significance in the economy of the country and other industries, it is necessary to study its definition.

Industrial production index- this is a macroeconomic indicator that characterizes the change in the production process with a combination of services and goods grouped according to the following types of the all-Russian classifier of types of economic activity: Processing», « Mining», « Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water».

Industrial production index is calculated monthly and takes into account the change in the physical volumes of manufactured products, as well as the spent working hours and consumed energy.

You can also follow the data of the industrial production index in, and find out the date of the next publication of the macroeconomic indicator.

The role of the industrial production index

The output index covers the manufacturing sectors of the economy. Also, this index is an average of the manufacturing, mining, utilities and construction indices. It is based on physical volume measures and excludes private and public services.

The industrial production index is an excellent way to study, in cases where it is impossible to sum up, but it is necessary to compare. That is why one of the proven methods used in statistical calculations, which allows you to characterize the change in some phenomena, is the index method.

The index method is designed to solve the following main tasks:

  • determination of the characteristics of changes in the general level of complex socio-economic phenomena;
  • analysis of the impact of each of the factors on the change in the indexed value by excluding the impact of other factors;
  • analysis of the impact of structural shifts on the change in the indexed value.

Calculation of the industrial production index

When constructing the industrial production index, the following methods are used:

  • direct measurement;
  • an estimate that is based on a combination of labor time and energy consumption data.

The index starts to form upon receipt data on the dynamics of production and production of goods of a certain line. Then there is a division and formation of indices depending on the type of economic activity.

For large populations, the index is averaged based on the constituent elements that form these populations.

When forming elementary, large and other aggregates into indices, a classification is created by groups, subgroups, sections, subsections, industrial and production areas, in accordance with the classifier of types of economic activity.

The index is calculated in the following order:

  1. Indices are calculated that characterize the change in production for a specific reporting period, for example, from the beginning of the year or month.
  2. Indices are calculated that characterize the change in production for a certain past period in relation to the average monthly volume of the year taken as a basis.
  3. Indices are calculated that characterize the change in production in the current reporting period compared to the previous period, which are obtained by dividing the indices.

The calculation of the index of industrial production is carried out in several stages, as well as in repeated recalculations for each individual stage.

At the initial stage, production indices are determined for each type of activity separately, by comparing the output of goods in the reporting period with their output in the base period. Also at this stage, an index of gross output is formed, but not value added.

The impact of the industrial production index on the markets, the stock exchange and in the country's economy

The industrial production index has a huge impact on the economic growth of any country. The growth of the indicator contributes to the strengthening and appreciation of the national currency, the economy and directly affects the market itself.

In the foreign exchange market, the index indicator is also of great importance, due to its connection with the dynamics of the business cycle. With the help of the index dynamics, while waiting for changes in the policy of central banks, it is possible to track the direction of these upcoming changes.

According to analytical data provided by competent organizations, with a decrease in the production index, not necessary there will be a process of reducing the profits of enterprises, since inflation increases the revenue and profits of producers, even if in reality production does not grow. This is an occasion for reflection for any trader who considers the index to be a very important tool in assessing future performance, as well as assets in the market itself.

The growth of production itself has a positive effect on the balance of power in the financial market, suggesting an increase in stock prices and a positive mood of investors. This also means strengthening the country's economy as a whole,including the strengthening of positions in the macroeconomics, and this, in turn, entails increased competition for goods in the main world markets, as a result of which, the growth of the trade balance and the exchange rate of the national currency.

It is believed that the index of industrial production is not among the important ones, but there were cases when the involvement of this indicator on the part of the economy was useful for fundamental market analysis.

In turn, this indicates the need to consider each indicator separately if the goal is to qualitatively and in detail analyze the market and not be among the traders who find themselves " out of work».

Another important observation, which has been studied and fully analyzed by many analysts is the following: when the index of industrial production begins to grow faster, this indicates that fundamental industries are gaining momentum. In the case when the growth of the index lags behind the growth of the gross domestic product, there is a decline in the growth of the same industries.

The State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation publishes reports on the dynamics of industrial production, which contain data on all indicators of the dynamics of volume, and for each of the following industries in particular:

  • fuel industry;
  • black, non-ferrous metallurgy;
  • electric power industry;
  • chemical industry;
  • timber industry;
  • polygraphy;
  • mechanical engineering and metalworking;
  • light industry;
  • medical industry;
  • food industry.

In the Eurozone, data on industrial indices are distributed by Eurostat, in the USA - by the Federal Reserve System ( which takes into account index performance to adjust monetary policy), in Japan - by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

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